So far, 2026 has seen a lot of volatility in the economy and the stock market, but not in interest rates. The Federal Reserve has maintained the Federal Funds Rate at the same level since late 2025, even through the early months of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. This despite pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates, and a contingent of Fed board members who want to raise rates to tamp down inflation.
Top economists believe the Fed will continue to split the difference, with nearly 80% predicting the Fed will hold rates steady for the rest of the year, according to a new Reuters survey. Financial expert Derrick Kinney was not part of the survey, but he agrees with that assessment. "We see oil 25 percent higher than pre-war, we see jobs numbers somewhat disappointing, and we see inflation still not where people want it to be," says Kinney. "All of those together, send a strong signal to me that keeping rates the same is probably the best way to go."
Warsh finds himself caught between Trump, who has called for lower rates to boost the economy, and members of the board who believe a rate hike is in order. At the last Fed meeting, three members voted for a rate increase, breaking the usual pattern of unanimous votes. Kinney believes a rate hike would be a mistake right now. "Low interest rates send a message of I can get things more affordably," he tells KTRH. "We've seen so much economic uncertainty, that raising rates right now could actually be very, very negative for the stock market."
With all of the competing interests around Warsh, Kinney expects him to stand pat at least through the elections. "If we see the Iran conflict avert, or we see better jobs numbers, all of that could lead to some changes at the December meeting," he says. "But most people think rates stay the same for the rest of this year, and possibly change the first part of next year."
Photo: Dorwart, Mike (uploader)