After months of doom and gloom media sentiment over the economy, some political experts see a light on the horizon for President Trump and the GOP. Patrick Allocco, founder of the Zoose Political Index, recently told Newsmax that "a correction has started" in the economy, adding that "gas prices are falling, 401(k)s are at records, the job market just added 172,000 jobs last week, and you're starting to see that show up in the polling."
"This is not a blue-wave scenario...Republicans are still very much in this fight," said Allocco about the status of the midterm elections.
There is no doubt things are looking up in the economy, thanks to the deal with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices are almost back down to pre-war levels, and gas prices have plunged more than 50 cents in the last three weeks. Consumer sentiment also rose by nearly 10% last month, and that was prior to the announcement of the Iran deal.
The bugaboo remains inflation, which is at an annual rate of 4.2%, highest in three years. While some of that can be blamed on the Iran conflict in the short-term, the long-term issue of inflation goes back to the COVID pandemic. "Remember, we had this huge spike in prices (after the pandemic)," says Richard Rosso, certified financial planner. "Then they came down to a certain level, and they got stuck...now, they're going up again, but they never went back to pre-COVID levels, and people are having a really hard time with that...like why can't we go back to what prices were?"
The truth is prices will likely never go back to those levels, which means that managing inflation is somewhat beyond the president's control. But bringing down oil, gas, and energy prices is a good start. "I call it the drive-by sentiment," says Rosso. "You drive by a gas station and you see the price of gas, and can see that it's coming down, it triggers positive sentiment...like oh, this is great, it's heading back in the right direction."
Whether there is enough of that positive sentiment to carry into the midterms remains to be seen. But Allocco, the pollster, is bullish on the GOP. "We're looking at a macro-economy that's extremely strong right now," he tells Newsmax. "I think it's going to be a win (for Republicans)."