Plan For Cuban Regime Change Faces Feasibility Questions

Since 1959, the Cuban people have been governed by intense, brutal communist dictatorships that have left the people and country in shambles. In the 67 years since that rise to power, Cuba has managed to be a thorn in the side of the United States. The Cuban Missile Crisis was one of many examples, with the Cubans forming alliances with American enemies every step of the way.

President Trump has made it clear he wants to remove the thorns from America's side. First was the capture of Venezuelan Dictator Nicolas Maduro in January, a country that has provided oil to American enemies while also causing a massive influx of drugs into the U.S. Then, the U.S. and Israel went after a bigger fish, Iran, who has been run by religious extremists for 47 years. The goal of that was not regime change, but it is happening, nonetheless.

In recent weeks, Trump has said that Cuba will come after the war with Iran is finished. That likely has to be the sequence, as fighting with Iran is taking up many resources. But there are other issues with the feasibility of the idea of Cuban regime change. Now, the Cubans said in recent months they are open to change and want to work with the U.S. But, as with any adversary, you have to take anything they say with a grain of salt.

Chris Bray of The Federalist says their public comments about wanting to change are purely self-preservation.

"That was obviously a bid for survival in the face of an administration that scares them, and should scare them," he says.

Scare them, it should. The U.S. showed how quickly things can change with the capture of Maduro. They have also shown off the firepower and abilities in Iran, wiping out all of Iran's military capabilities in just two months.

The Trump administration has made it clear though they do not really buy the Cubans facade. Trump put in an order recently that any countries that do business with Cuba will face U.S. sanctions. That means the administration knows the Cubans are stalling and are willing to let them. For now.

But Cuba is a different animal and has been ruled with an iron fist for 67 years. Tossing that aside is much easier said than done.

"Clearly, Cuba is in very poor shape...decades of communism and sanctions have made the country poor, unstable...but the big question is how far is the Cuban government willing to go....and we do not really know that yet," says Bray.

The other problem is on the U.S. side. The war with Iran is ongoing, so that is a problem. But how you go about the regime change is tricky. Land invasions of Cuba have a bad history in the United States (see: Bay of Pigs). Bombing Cuba will not really accomplish it.

So, with a lot of unknowns and variables, how a true regime change in Cuba happens is a toss-up.

"The administration is signaling they want change...but are not yet signaling they know yet how that change happens," Bray says.

It all comes down to how far the Trump administration will go, and how much Cuba is willing to fight to keep their iron fist. It is a feasible task, but it is a tall one.