The United States has been blockading Iranian ports, stopping most of their oil from moving to buyers, in an effort to force them to come to the table and make a deal. After two weeks, there hasn’t been much progress, so how long can they hold out?
Iran is still able to export small amounts of oil across land to black market buyers, and small amounts have managed to get through via their dark fleet. Unfortunately for the regime, or what’s left of it, that’s only just enough to keep the IRGC paid and won’t last long.
According to Brent Sadler, a Navy vet, researcher, and senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation: “It’s not likely to get a return for them in cash, certainly not anywhere near the scale they can get by moving millions of barrels a day through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Sadler also pointed out that Iran hasn’t been able to supply one of their biggest customers, China, with the oil they need, and that will be a factor as well. “How long can Beijing tolerate having energy flows disrupted in such a massive way? When it comes to the economics of it, the pressure is on Beijing,” he said.
Sadler predicted that if Iran doesn’t cut a deal that allows it to resume exporting large amounts of oil to China, Beijing might begin putting more pressure on Iran. Given that, he predicts Iran will cut a deal likely within three weeks.