The midterms are always a tricky thing for the party in the majority. Historically in America, the party that holds the majority in midterms, whether Republican or Democrat, tends to lose their Congressional majority in midterms following an election. So, naturally, Democrats have been taking victory laps months ahead of time, assuming their blue wave is guaranteed.
But new poll numbers show Democrats are not only behind their historic numbers at midterms; they are in danger of losing their lead altogether. New polls from CNN have Republicans trailing Democrats by just five approval points, despite their efforts to demonize President Trump and the war with Iran. Compared to say 2018, Democrats approvals were eight points better than Republicans. In 2006, it was eleven. It is just another sign the party is in freefall.
But despite all of this, they are still pounding their chest, assuming the midterms are locked up without a doubt. If the SAVE Act is not passed, they might be right. But the tide is turning in America. People are rejecting the Democrats. How they act, their ideologies, the people have made it clear they do not want it. Which means November might be a bit of a wakeup call.
Terry Schilling of the American Principles Project says they are being led into a similar trap that Republicans fell into just four years ago.
"Where they got too confident and thought they were going to make these big gains in the House and Senate...then the red wave that was expected ended up being a red trickle...I think Democrats are in the same position," he says.
The party has been taking their victory laps essentially since the Fall of 2025. But things can change and they have. Democrats popularity has been plummeting recently, as they show their faces of hypocrisy, hatred and disdain for America amid the Iran war. The party is at all-time lows as far as approval numbers go even within their own party. The writing is on the wall, but they cannot seem to read it.
The difference this time too for Republicans, as opposed to 2022, is they have a "Trump" card, which is the President himself.
"When voters are asked about the approval for President Trump's priorities, it is about 32-percent...when voters are asked about approval of Democrat policies, only 25-percent approve," says Schilling. "President Trump is in a very strong position...and I would expect Democrats to be a little disappointed come November."
President Trump will of course be rallying behind various GOP candidates as the Midterms approach. But it goes beyond that. He has results to tout with his policies. The tax cuts in the Big, Beautiful Bill, the net negative immigration, falling inflation, and a whole host of other wins. Democrats have no true accomplishments. Their platform is just divisive rhetoric, temper tantrums and vitriol.
But just words, rallying and humor is not going to be enough to drive things home for Republicans. The GOP needs to get the base fired up to vote. If there is one thing you can give credit to Democrats for, it is that they know how to make their base froth at the mouth.
Because midterms critically rely on base turnout, finding something to get the GOP voter encouraged to vote is the key.
"Whoever is more motivated to go to the polls on election day, their party base...that will determine the outcome," Schilling says.
He adds the GOP though cannot get complacent and need to keep pushing, because things can change overnight.
But if things keep going as they are, and the GOP finds their voter driving key, the Democrats blue wave could be nothing more than a small swell.
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