Eight months ahead of the midterm elections, it appears to be anybody's game. The latest poll from Harvard/Harris has Republicans and Democrats split at 50% support in a generic congressional ballot, where voters are asked if they would vote for the Republican or Democrat in their district if the election was held today. That marks an improvement over the same poll last month, which had Democrats leading 54% to 46% on the generic ballot. A Fox News poll in late January had Dems leading the GOP 52% to 46%.
Democrats have had the advantage over Republicans in various polls for weeks, as Republicans face concerns about weak turnout from Trump voters in an off year without him on the ballot. That may be turning around after Trump's State of the Union address last week. "CNN polling, of all outlets, surprised me a bit during the State of the Union," says Dr. Bo Kabala, political science professor at Tarleton State University. "Their poll spoke to a shift that seemed to happen over the course of the State of the Union speech for some undecided voters, along the lines of ten percentage points in Trump's direction."
The Harvard/Harris survey, which was taken in the two days after the State of the Union, also noted improvement in President Trump's approval rating, which is now at 46% favorable versus 49% unfavorable, compared to 45% favorable and 51% unfavorable a month earlier.
There is still a long way to go, but Dr. Kabala believes these numbers represent a razor-tight election, with any talk of waves or locks in either direction premature. "I think this is incredibly close political terrain we're in," he tells KTRH. "It's going to come down to voter intensity, and it's going to come down to developments between now and election day."
"Anybody who thinks it's a landslide right now is over-interpreting the numbers...this is a tossup election at this point."
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