Last weekend's stunning upset victory in a special election for state senate is leading to visions of grandeur for Texas Democrats. Democratic PACs are reviving talk of turning Texas blue again this fall, believing the victory is a sign of cracks in the GOP's longtime Texas dominance. In particular, Texas Majority PAC Director Katherine Fischer says if Attorney General Ken Paxton is the U.S. Senate nominee, they believe they will have a "massive opportunity" to compete statewide because of Paxton's past scandals and his close ties to President Trump.
Of course, winning a special election in a single senate district in late January is a far cry from winning a statewide race in November. Especially considering Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024. "I still think Republicans are in the driver's seat in Texas," says Jeff Crouere, podcast host and political analyst. "But I am worried about what's going on across the country in some swing districts, where I think Republicans are really losing ground with independents, and Democrats are creating an edge."
"I think the RNC has got their work cut out for them," he continues. "They did well in 2024, but since then they really have lost their momentum, and they've got to get back to messaging and getting out the vote."
Some Republicans have dismissed last weekend's result as an outlier due to poor overall turnout, bad weather, etc. Crouere believes that is a mistake, and the party would be wise to use this as motivation heading into the fall. "I think in Texas, Republicans should be able to pull through in these statewide elections, but they can't be complacent," he tells KTRH. "And they need to do a much better job than they did in this special election, which was just a disaster."
"So hopefully, it was the wake-up call they needed...we'll see."
Photo: Moment RF