A new national report shows the consumer confidence index fell one point, from 95.6 to 94.6 in October. There are so many variables to consider, it is hard to pinpoint who the culprit is.
Ceo of Ginn Economics and SR. Economist, Vance Ginn, attributes the shift, to a slow job market, along with an “uncertainty” among Americans, as to the outcome of the tariff negotiations and the decisions from the previous administration that led to high inflation. “What we have seen across the economy- is a lot of uncertainty; this usually will drop consumer confidence. What is going to happen in the labor market? What is going to happen with certain prices around them? Coming off the Biden year of high inflation- a lot of increase in government debts. There was just a lot of uncertainty ready to begin with.” Ginn said.
He says people witnessing their friends and family experiencing a job loss is also a variable affecting the consumer index causing them to not buy as much. He says the consumer index rate fluctuates from month to month. The economist says many businesses have said they are in a “freezing period” as they wait out to see what the outcome will be once the negotiations on tariffs are settled.
“So, you get all those factors in play together, leads to lower consumer confidence, less likely to buy things over Christmas.” He said.
Ginn says given a similar job market in previous years, the numbers did not reflect a poor economy during the holiday season. He does not suspect the 2025 season will show an increase in the consumer index, he anticipates the numbers will be slightly lower.