Texas Redistricting Map's Hang In Three-Judge Panel's Hands

The battle over the Texas redistricting maps is hitting the final hurdle, as hearings regarding their legality have wrapped up in El Paso. The enforcement of the maps now rests with a three-judge panel, who can either enforce the maps, or grant a temporary injunction to further kick the can down the road. The latter of those two would also hold up the maps for the midterms next year.

Both sides are dug in, with Republicans rightfully saying the redistricting is legal, which it is. The maps are also fairly drawn and actually create multiple Hispanic-majority districts. Important to note because the Democrats claim the maps are racist and that the state has no right to redraw them. When in reality, the state can redraw them anytime they want. Sure, the timing before midterms are interesting, to say the least. But there has been no nefarious doing.

As the meetings in El Paso have ended this week, legal analyst Travis Morgan of Texas Scorecard says the candidate filing period for next year opens November 8th. So, a quick ruling is the desire.

"It will come before November 8th, I think before the filing period opens, the judges are going to want to make sure there is time for candidates and counties to prepare for what map under which they will be operating," he says.

The argument for the Democrats opposing the maps surrounds gerrymandering. They believe the redrawn maps are racially gerrymandered, and that is the argument they have taken to court. Proving that to get an injunction, however, is an entirely different story.

A preliminary injunction from the panel would be considered extreme and required high levels of proof. That includes providing racial data. The plaintiffs have to convince the panel the state acted in bad faith and the maps are done on the basis of race. None of which can be further from the truth.

"The plaintiffs, they want to revert back to the 2021 maps automatically...which is sort of ironic, since they have claimed racial discrimination against that map for four years in a court of law," says Morgan. "But it does favor Democrats better, so we do not know what exactly is going to happen."

A preliminary injunction is unlikely. However, if it does come to that, the state has a plan.

"What the state wants to happen is the chance to redraw the maps, with all the partisan objectives they had, but also satisfying the plaintiffs concerns," Morgan says.

As for how the three-judge panel will rule, Morgan says it is anyone's guess. One of the judges is a Trump-appointee, the lead judge is a relatively moderate Obama-appointee, and one has ruled against redistricting in the past. It is all in the air.

But Morgan does say he expects the maps to be enforced for 2026, and that a preliminary injunction is likely.

There has been no word on exactly when the panel will make a ruling.