We've already seen illegal border crossings fall to a record low since President Donald Trump took office, but there is further evidence of the dramatic impact of Trump's immigration policies. New analysis of government data by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) finds the total foreign-born population of the U.S. fell by 2.2 million in the first six months of the year. Of that decline, about 1.6 million are illegal aliens. "This is a generational, historic, monumental---whatever term you like---change," says Steven Camarota, research director for CIS.
Camarota offers a caveat to the decline, which is that many illegals or foreigners may be avoiding reporting their status because of the Trump crackdown, which could adversely affect the data. But even allowing for that, there is a notable decline in both the illegal and legal foreign population, especially after the historic increase under the Biden administration. "We saw a massive run-up in the foreign born and illegal population during the Biden years," says Camarota. "Now we're seeing a complete reverse."
CIS estimates the foreign-born population of the U.S. rose by more than 8 million during Biden's four years in office, so the decline under Trump could be equally dramatic. "If the total foreign-born were to decline by even 2-3 million during Trump's four years, that would be extraordinary," says Camarota. "So far, it looks like we're on track for something like that."
As for what this massive demographic shift will mean for society, some liberal analysts are predicting a decline in the economy and the labor market with the loss of millions of workers. But Camarota also sees the flip side of that. "What we hope will happen is it will drive up wages at the bottom end of the labor market where the illegal immigrants are concentrated, it might make rental houses more affordable, it might take some pressure off infrastructure like roads and bridges," he says. "So a decline in population isn't necessarily bad."
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