Some economists have been predicting a US economic recession for more than a year now, but one Trump administration economist says there's one surefire way to start one: Fail to pass the Big Beautiful Bill.
The word is already out that the bill contains provisions that will make permanent aspects of President Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that are set to expire on December 31st, and also includes some new tax breaks.
For one, it contains President Trump’s pledge to end income taxes on overtime work and on tips such those made by waitresses and waiters.
But because the financial world is aware that these tax breaks are coming along with the bill, if somehow the bill doesn't pass, then financial markets will have to assume that tax cuts will not be renewed, new tax decreases are stalled and so devastating tax hikes are on the way
That's what could send us into recession.
Those in Congress voting against the bill are being irresponsible, says White House Council of Economic Affairs Stephen Miran, "because what you are doing is voting for the biggest tax hike in history that will increase taxes by $4 billion on Americans and plunge the economy into recession."
But there's also a matter of urgency.
Miran says the bill can pass by this Friday, Independence Day, or as soon as possible, because the US economy is counting on it.
"If people start to think, Hey, this thing is dragging on, they hold off on investments, they hold off on hiring, they put off economic decisions and that's really, really bad because the economy slips into recession because people are expecting that tax hike."